Here’s What Tribe Won’t Do.

There is plenty of speculation on whether the Cleveland Indians will be buyers or sellers when the major league trading deadline comes around at the end of July.

Most likely, because of the division they are in, they will look to add to their current roster to stay in the AL Central Division race.  It looks very much like around 85-88 wins will get you a division title and a trip to the playoffs.  That means if they hang around the .500 mark for another month, which isn’t that absurd, they will definitely be in the thick of it.

It is funny to hear talk show hosts speculate on who the Indians would deal in order to improve the team.  Here is a partial list of players who aren’t going anywhere.

Chris Perez
In the off-season, this was a possibility and one that was suggested here and by others.  Now, it would be idiotic to deal a guy who is having a very good season, probably getting another All-Star berth.

Perez and Vinnie Pestano, another player it would be silly to deal, represent the only reliable pitchers currently in Manny Acta’s bullpen.  If it seems like the Indians can only win when the duo pitch, it should.  Perez has saved 10 of the last 13 victories for Cleveland.

When the Indians have the lead after seven innings, it’s a solid bet that Pestano and Chris Perez will close it out for the Tribe.

Any of the Indians Solid Hitters.
It makes no sense for GM Chris Antonetti to deal one of the few players currently hitting on the ballclub.  This would mean SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B Jason Kipnis, CF Michael Brantley, and RF Shin-Soo Choo.  Especially because all of them will be back in Cleveland for the 2013 season.

Think about it, it really doesn’t help the team by trading a player who is productive to fill another hole.  That is unless there is someone to take that player’s spot.

For example, if someone was interested in Jack Hannahan (probably there isn’t a big market for him, no offense to him), you might consider dealing him because you have Lonnie Chisenhall.

Let’s say Antonetti dealt Choo for a right-handed power hitter.  Who plays rightfield?

The object of a deadline trade is to strengthen the team as a whole, not fill one spot by creating another.

Trade Francisco Lindor
Last year, Antonetti dealt two of his best pitching prospects to get Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado.  We can debate the merits of the deal for hours, but unlike the time the Indians traded back-to-back Cy Young Award winners, they will not trade their top prospect two consecutive years.

So-called experts who talk about trading the shortstop currently at Lake County, are showing they are idiots.

Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein saw Lindor in spring training and said in a few years, people will wonder why he wasn’t the first player taken in last year’s draft.  He’s playing and succeeding (making the Midwest League all-star team) in a full season league, and he won’t turn 19 years old until November.

Besides, the player you likely will get in any deal this year will be an older player (early to mid 30’s) who can still contribute.  You don’t trade a player with Lindor’s future to get a guy like that.

Antonetti is looking for a right-handed stick (a familiar need) and some help for his pitching staff.  The Tribe have some useful players in the minor leagues to get some veteran help.

However, he is unlikely to disrupt his major league roster or trade a guy like Lindor to help get players of that ilk.  It’s simply too high of a price.

KM

A Different Look at Browns Schedule

After the 2012 NFL schedule was made public a few weeks ago, Browns’ fans and radio talk show hosts immediately turned it into a negative, saying than Cleveland would likely go 4-12 again, or perhaps even 3-13 because they have the 3rd toughest slate in the league.

Certainly, Pat Shurmur’s team isn’t playing college or high school teams, but that statistic is a little misleading.

One reason is that the statistic takes into account the teams’ divisional schedule, and last year, three teams from the AFC North made the playoffs, two of them (Pittsburgh and Baltimore) winning 12 games.  No other division in football had two squads that both won that many games.

That doesn’t make the games any easier, but Cleveland plays the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals every year!  They know that going into the season.  In fact, do you know who has the 4th toughest schedule in the NFL according to 2011 win/loss records?  The Ravens.  And really, their schedule is tougher because they have the Browns in that stat.

Everyone is all worried because Cleveland inter conference match up in 2012 is the big, bad NFC East, featuring the Super Bowl champion New York Giants.  However, how many of you realize only one team, that being the Giants, in that division had a record over .500 last season?

Dallas and Philadelphia, the Browns opponent in the opener last year, both had records of 8-8.

Last year, Cleveland played the NFC West, another division where only one team won more games than they lost, that being San Francisco, who went 13-3.

The fear here is based on reputation.  The Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys are historically strong franchises, so fans assume that Shurmur’s team will lose those games.  Heck, after 12 games last season, Philly had the same record as the Browns, with both teams being 4-8.

Another reason Cleveland’s schedule looks worse on paper is that they only play one team, Indianapolis, who had a terrible record in 2011.  Because of their fourth place finish in the division last year, the Browns play the other 4th place teams in the AFC.  However, Buffalo was 6-10 and Kansas City was 7-9.

If you rank all of the records of the teams finishing last in their respective divisions, you will find that those teams had the best records.  Remember, the strength of schedule takes into account the entire league, so NFC last place teams finished 5-11 (Washington), 4-12 (Tampa Bay), 3-13 (Minnesota), and 2-14 (St. Louis).

When you take into account that a seven game difference would give the Browns the 14th most difficult slate for 2012, which would be kind of in the middle, tied with Cincinnati (another team whose stat includes the four win Browns), playing the last place teams with the best schedules swings things considerably.

The AFC North also pairs up with the AFC West this season, and virtually every team in that division finished .500, except for the Chiefs (7-9), this is somewhat redundant, but again, there are no terrible teams to lower the winning percentage of opponents.

No matter what the statistics say, any success the Cleveland Browns will have depends on their play within the division.  Last year, they went 0-6. If they can manage to win two games in 2012, they will have a better season mark.  Until, Shurmur’s team can compete against the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals, and win, their record will not be good.

No matter who else is on the schedule.

JD